November 15th is a significant day for Avelo: it marks its first service outside the continental US. Two routes lift off to San Juan, Puerto Rico, a US territory considered domestic. They are bound to be in the next routes newsletter.

Welcome, San Juan! 

Obviously, both routes – from Tweed New Haven and Wilmington – will mainly revolve around the Puerto Rican diaspora. Connecticut has more than 300,000 Puerto Ricans, with about 90,000 in Greater New Haven. Meanwhile, over 250,000 live in the Greater Philadelphia and Delaware Valley region, among the largest populations in the mainland US.

The two routes are scheduled as follows, with all times local. Flightradar24 shows that the 189-seat Boeing 737-800 will operate both inaugural roundtrips and continue afterward. Given Tweed New Haven's renowned short runway and the route length, offset by very low elevation and winter temperature, perhaps it will have a payload restriction if it is sufficiently full.

• Tweed New Haven to San Juan: Wed, Sat, XP327, 07:30-12:15
• San Juan to Tweed New Haven: Wed, Sat, XP328, 13:15-16:20
• Wilmington to San Juan: Wed, XP587, 13:10-18:00; Sat, 13:20-18:10
• San Juan to Wilmington: Wed, XP588, 19:00-22:00; Sat, 19:10-22:10

Joins United's latest route 

They follow United's October 29th launch of San Juan back to Denver. Operating daily using the 737 MAX 9, the 2,733-mile (4,398 km) route is Puerto Rico's longest to the mainland US. Flightradar24 informs us that the typical flight time to its Colorado hub takes about six hours due to the headwind. The previous longest airport pair was San Juan-Los Angeles, served by American until November 2011.

It is the first time Denver has had nonstop San Juan flights. It is a big local market: booking data shows about 67,000 passengers flew between the two cities in January-September 2023. The new service will also help United to increase its share of traffic to/from the Western and Pacific states, which saw ~330,000 people in those nine months. American was the largest indirect operator.

Next up is Spirit to Fort Myers, with a four weekly service beginning on December 15th. Sun Country last served the airport pair between 2015 and 2017. It will be followed by a Saturday-only service by Southwest to Austin on March 9th, which saw American in 2021-2022.

Narrowing down the focus to a max of 2,000 miles (3,219 km) shows that these are the five largest unserved markets, which could be easily stimulated with non-stop service, attractive fares, and good promotions. Of course, as is usually the case, each has many one-stop options with multi-daily flights via different hubs.

• Buffalo: ~34,000 roundtrip passengers
• Indianapolis: ~32,000
• Pittsburgh: ~31,000
• New Orleans: ~28,000
• Columbus: ~27,000

Top unserved markets: <2,000 miles

Analysis of January-September 2023 booking data indicates that about 7.5 million roundtrip passengers flew between San Juan and the US mainland. More than one in five people (around 1.9 million) flew via a hub, a considerable amount.