Data published by the travel data company OAG has revealed that forward bookings between Canada and the United States have fallen by as much as 75% in the next few months.

Forward bookings collapsing

According to OAG, which used “forward booking data from a major GDS [global distribution system – ed. note] supplier,” the data showed a very alarming downward trend.

Comparing forward bookings from Canada to the US in March 2025 and March 2024, data showed that between April and September, they were down as much as 75.7% during some months.

Last-minute bookings?

Air Transat is so far the only Canadian airline that has announced its most recent results, with the carrier’s Q1 FY2024/2025 ending on January 31 indicating that it was still closely monitoring the transborder situation.

While the airline does not have a lot of exposure to the US market, serving only two airports down south in April, Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport (FLL) and Orlando International Airport (MCO), it is still monitoring whether passengers are more likely to make last-minute bookings based on the economic environment.

Still, Annick Guerard, the President and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Air Transat, said that the airline was “closely monitoring the situation as it evolves” as the industry entered a strong booking period for the summer season, which begins on March 30.

Capacity changes

So far, there has been little adjustment to capacity between Canada and the US between March and October, as shown by data from the aviation analytics company Cirium’s Diio Mi airline planning tool.

Comparing the same eight-month period between 2025 and 2024, airlines have added 4.1% of flights and 4.5% of seats on routes from Canada to the US, with the only carriers axing itineraries being Canadian.

This includes Air Transat and Flair Airlines, which have removed 22.1% and 26.5% of flights between March and October, compared to the same period in 2024, respectively, with Air Canada growing its flights on transborder routes by only 0.6%.

Naturally, in an ever-changing situation, with Trump’s administration not backing down despite the apparent economic harm that would be done to their own constituents and instead doubling down, threatening Canada and the European Union (EU) that if they work together, the US will impose “large scale Tariffs, far larger than currently planned, will be placed on them both in order to protect the best friend that each of those two countries has ever had,” according to Trump’s post on Truth Social, the capacity numbers still could change on short notice.

At the same time, some routes from Canada to the US that were previously scheduled will not take off, as demand has forced airlines to adjust at least some capacity. These are displayed below using data from Cirium’s Diio Mi.