For any modern travel-dependent business, forecasts play a crucial role in optimizing planning and maximizing revenue. However, in the current, post-Covid travel landscape, the historical trends on which most forecasting models are based are no longer the reliable resource they once were.

Against this background, travel retail brands are finding it difficult to plan and operate efficiently. Knowing one’s audience is fundamental to the success of any retailer, but lacking consistent trends to draw on, many brands and duty-free operators have been unable to determine whether they are targeting the right travellers.

Without knowing their audiences, travel retail companies cannot make informed decisions on which products to stock, what activations and discounts to offer, how many employees to have on the shopfloor, and which staff members are needed based on the languages they speak. They also lack the information to decide which tenders for airport retail space to bid on, and how much to offer, based on future travel trends. In short, they cannot optimize marketing and revenue.

Forecasts that truly look forward

Having identified the above challenges through its collaboration and engagement with numerous travel retail brands worldwide, ForwardKeys has developed a solution: a new-and-improved forecasting model.

Instead of using historical data rendered invalid by two years of unprecedented travel disruption, the new algorithm draws on real future bookings and scheduled flights – in other words, data that is truly forward-looking. The result is a highly accurate, near-real-time forecast that covers all airports worldwide and therefore provides insight on an unparalleled number of global passengers.

As a more reliable and comprehensive source of knowledge, the new model gives users the information they need to ensure they are targeting the right audience. This in turn allows them to plan marketing campaigns, staffing, and inventory more effectively.

In addition, with insight into which airports their key markets are set to travel from, travel retail companies can make data-backed decisions about where and how much to invest in new retail space, and whether to renew leases on existing stores, to drive revenue.

Ultimately, by trusting in a forecast that looks forwards, not backwards, duty-free operators, luxury brands, and airport stores can maximize success in the post-Covid era of travel.

Already trusted by many of the world’s leading travel retail brands and duty-free operators, ForwardKeys’ forecasts can be accessed through their business intelligence solution for the travel retail sector, Traveller Statistics. Alternatively, you can integrate the new forecasts into your own systems and processes through Licensed Datasets.