European Air Transport COVID-19 impacts and recovery to be worse than other regions

New estimates for the impacts of COVID-19 on air transport and economies in Europe in 2020

European Air Transport COVID-19 impacts and recovery to be worse than other regions

December 10 - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released new estimates for the impacts of COVID-19 on air transport and economies in Europe in 2020, indicating a further deterioration in revenues, job prospects and economic activity across the entire continent.

IATA’s latest economic forecast reveals that in 2021 Europe is expected to be the worst-hit global region in terms of airline losses (-$11.9 billion) and EBIT margin (-9.5%). Passenger traffic (measured in revenue passenger km, RPK) is estimated to have fallen 70% this year, the worst performance of any region with the exceptions of Africa (-72%) and the Middle East (-73%). RPK growth next year is expected to be a weak 47.5%, trailing the comparable regions of Asia Pacific (50%) and North America (60.5%).

“Our projections for this year and next are little short of a disaster for European air transport. Border restrictions and quarantine measures have brought demand to a halt and the region has been affected even worse than most other parts of the world. There is optimism over a vaccine, but as our forecast for next year shows, this is unlikely to come in time to prevent hundreds of thousands more job losses in the industry unless governments take immediate action. The focus must remain on rapid testing of passengers so that quarantine can be eliminated, and borders safely opened,” said Rafael Schvartzman, IATA’s Regional Vice President for Europe.

An in-depth look at the national level impacts reveals that prospects for passenger numbers and industry revenues have declined across the board since the analysis in August. This inevitably feeds into greater numbers of jobs at risk and negative economic impacts. Across Europe as a whole more than seven million jobs have been lost or are at imminent risk due to the COVID-19 shutdown.