Tripadvisor Travel Trends Report June 2021

Travel & Selling Tips / Tripadvisor Travel Trends Report June 2021

Examining the vaccine’s impact on leisure travel demand

Over the last twelve months, Tripadvisor has tracked the planning and booking behaviors of travelers all over the world. Tripadvisor’s previous research explored the impact of the early stages of the pandemic on travel demand, examined emerging traveler trends over the course of 2020, and offered five predictions for travelers trends Tripadvisor expected to see in 2021.

As the peak leisure travel season approaches, questions about how quickly the global travel and tourism sector will recover still remain. While in some parts of the world - like the United States - demand is rebounding, in others the picture is more uncertain. How confident are travelers feeling about booking a trip, either domestically or internationally? How big an influence is the rollout of COVID-19 vaccinations having on customer demand for travel? How soon will demand for international vacations return, and what will that mean for domestic tourism in the meantime?

The latest in Tripadvisor’s series of research reports will attempt to help answer all of these important questions by providing unique insights into the type of vacations travelers around the world are considering, when they intend to travel and their attitudes towards both domestic and international leisure travel in 2021.

To do this, Tripadvisor has analyzed first party forward-looking market data based on first party click and search behaviors on Tripadvisor, as well as the very latest sentiment data gathered from traveler surveys in six major markets around the world (the United States, United Kingdom, Australia, Italy, Japan and Singapore).

Tripadvisor's research highlights:

• Overall search trends in the accommodation, dining and experiences sectors • The influence of the vaccination rollout on consumers’ travel planning and booking habits • Travelers’ plans for their next big trip - whether domestic or international

Here is what Tripadvisor found….

The big picture

At the start of the year, Tripadvisor's research found some encouraging signs that travelers globally were not only more confident that they would be able to travel further afield in 2021 than they did in 2020, but that their determination to do so was growing stronger too.

With summer now approaching, Tripadvisor surveyed more than 2,400 consumers across six major markets to see how these trends were developing, and whether increasing confidence - if still evident - was translating into tangible travel planning and booking behaviors.

The resilience of consumers’ attitudes to travel has been a recurring theme in much of Tripadvisor’s research over the last twelve months, and Tripadvisor found evidence of it again in their latest consumer sentiment analysis. When asked to describe their attitude to travel in 2021 compared to their attitudes before the pandemic, around a third of those surveyed globally (30%) reported feeling “more determined than ever to travel this year” with a further thirty-seven percent (37%) agreeing with the statement: “I want to travel as much as I did before”. The remaining thirty-three percent (33%) of respondents said they are “more cautious about traveling this year”.

However, this global picture only tells part of the story, because between markets there were some stark differences in consumer attitudes. Respondents in the U.S. are the most determined to travel - nearly half (45%) reported feeling that way - while at the other end of the spectrum, half (50%) of travelers in Japan are “more cautious about traveling this year”.

These differences in attitude are also reflected in the booking behaviors that consumers report. Globally, about a third (27%) of those surveyed say they have already booked at least one vacation this year and a half (51%) are planning to do so. The U.S. has the highest proportion of travel planners and bookers - eighty-seven percent (87%) while Japan the lowest - fifty-six percent (56%).

These travel planning trends are evident in search behaviors on Tripadvisor too. Overall, search volumes on the site are growing, but the pace of growth is far from uniform between countries and regions.

In the U.S., hotel searches on Tripadvisor have increased in volume steadily since late November, and the most recent data analyzed (based on searches in early May) shows weekly volumes at a higher level than at any stage since the start of the pandemic.

In the UK, clicks are up more than any other major market since the turn of the year, although the recovery trajectory has not followed a steady upward trend like in the U.S. Instead, much of the growth in search traffic occurred during two spikes in user activity - one in late February, when the UK government announced its plans for a roadmap out of lockdown, and then again in April, as national lockdown restrictions began to ease further.

In Europe too, recent trends point to a recent improvement in traveler confidence. Of the eight major markets to have experienced growth in hotel traffic since the turn of the year, four are in mainland Europe - with Spain, Italy, Germany and France all seeing significant growth in hotel search traffic on Tripadvisor.

But this picture is not universal. In Asia-Pacific markets, signs of recovery remain more muted. For example, recovery in hotel searches in Australia - a country where COVID-19 infection rates have been low to date this year - has been slow and steady, but certainly not spectacular. In part, seasonality may play a factor here, with the country now heading into its colder months. Even in northern hemisphere countries in this region, recovery trends have not followed the same path as those in North America or Europe. In countries like Japan and India - where the government has struggled to contain the latest wave of the COVID-19 virus - hotel search traffic trends have even taken a small step backwards.

But what is driving these trends? And why is the outlook so varied between regions?

Vaccine impact on travel

In Tripadvisor's January report, 2021: The Year of the Travel Rebound?, Tripadvisor predicted that vaccinations were likely to be a game-changer for traveler confidence this year. So it has proved.

The clearest and strongest shoots of recovery to date have occurred in countries where the rollout of national vaccination programs is happening at speed, while in countries where the rollout has been slower, so have recovery trends in consumer travel planning behaviors.

Using the United States and the United Kingdom as examples, Tripadvisor sees a close correlation between total vaccines distributed in the country and growth in hotel search traffic on Tripadvisor.

Consumer sentiment analysis across six major markets tells a similar story. Respondents that said they had already received at least one vaccine dose are more likely to have booked or be planning to book a 2021 vacation.

Around a quarter of respondents globally (24%) have already booked at least one domestic vacation, but this rises to a third (32%) of vaccinated respondents compared to less than a fifth (19%) of unvaccinated respondents.

In the U.S., where progress in the rollout of vaccinations has been good relative to other nations, the proportion of vaccinated respondents that have booked a domestic vacation this year is higher still - forty-five percent (45%) - compared to just over a fifth (22%) of unvaccinated U.S. respondents.

The same trends are apparent for international trip planning. Overall, fewer respondents - just over one in ten (11%) - have already booked an international vacation for 2021, with bookings impacted by stricter rules on cross-border travel. However, the proportion nearly doubles to twenty-one percent (21%) among vaccinated respondents globally, compared to just five percent (5%) of unvaccinated respondents.

Looking at the breakdown by country among the six markets surveyed, as many as a quarter of respondents (25%) in the U.S. have already booked an international vacation, compared to just three percent (3%) of respondents in Japan (where to date a significantly lower percentage of the adult population has been vaccinated).

Clearly then, there is a correlation between vaccination rates and traveler confidence, but is there causation? Tripadvisor’s survey findings suggest there is.

Of those vaccinated respondents that have already booked a domestic trip, eighty percent (80%) agreed that the vaccine had been a factor in their decision to book. Among those who have booked an international trip, ninety-one percent (91%) of vaccinated respondents said it was a factor in their decision.

And there is every reason to believe this trend will continue as more people receive the vaccine. In fact, among those who are planning to travel domestically but are yet to book, nearly half (48%) of all unvaccinated respondents confirmed they are waiting to receive at least one dose of the vaccine before making a booking.

Of course, certain unknowns may yet influence just how big of an influence COVID-19 vaccines are likely to be on future demand. Tripadvisor cannot yet be certain of vaccine efficacy against new strains of the virus, or whether national governments can maintain the pace at which they are delivering the vaccine to their citizens. What is clear, however, is that vaccinations are having a positive impact on consumers’ attitude and confidence to travel.

A boost for dining and experiences

The impact of the vaccine extends to what travelers are planning to do during their trips, too.

When looking at restaurant search data on Tripadvisor, the company can see that restaurants in the UK, France and Italy all experienced an upwards spike in traveler interest in April this year - with dining searches in those countries outpacing the restaurant traffic volumes Tripadvisor saw at the same stage in 2020. In fact, in the first week of May 2021, eight out of the ten major markets analyzed saw higher year-on-year volumes in restaurant searches.

Last year, as the first wave of the pandemic began to ease, a steady increase in restaurant traffic - across Europe in particular - eventually reached a peak in August 2020. It is too early to tell whether restaurant searches will reach an even higher peak in 2021, but based on the trend’s current trajectory there is certainly reason for optimism for the summer months ahead, especially where national and regional governments continue to ease restrictions on indoor and outdoor dining.

Elsewhere, in the U.S. the trend line in both restaurants and experiences traffic is remarkably similar to the picture Tripadvisor sees in hotel searches, with restaurant search traffic growing steadily since late November 2020, and experience searches growing since the turn of the year. By the first week of May, U.S. weekly restaurant searches on Tripadvisor were at a higher volume than at any stage since the pandemic began and experience searches were already close to last year’s summer peak.

In Australia and Japan, the recovery in restaurant traffic has been largely flat, although experience searches in Japan have grown since the start of the year. And while experience searches have seen a seasonal dip in Australia as the colder weather sets in, volumes are still up year-on-year.

Looking at the types of experiences Tripadvisor users are searching for, a third (32%) of all searches are for Nature and Parks attractions, ahead of a quarter (25%) searching for Sights and Landmarks. Perhaps more interesting is the rise in searches for in-person Shopping experiences, which made up nearly ten percent (10%) of all experience searches globally at the start of May, roughly comparable to the proportion of searches for this category during the same period in 2019, prior to the pandemic.

Survey data provides some insight into what is behind these overall search trends. Among respondents who have already received at least one dose of the vaccine, forty-one percent (41%) said they feel more confident to dine indoors, a quarter (25%) feel more confident to visit a museum, and twenty-three percent (23%) feel more confident to visit a theme park.

The message is clear: the more people get vaccinated, the more tourism and hospitality businesses can expect to see a growth in bookings, especially among domestic guests. The pent-up demand for leisure travel is there - and vaccination rollouts hold the key to unlocking it.

Converting planners into bookers

For destinations and local businesses reliant on tourism, it is the cohort of travelers who plan to travel this year but have not yet booked that could determine the pace of recovery in 2021.

The good news is that half of respondents globally (50%) say they plan to book a domestic trip this year but have not yet done so, while over a quarter (28%) plan to book an international vacation.

Among the six countries surveyed, Italy has the highest proportion of respondents planning to book a 2021 vacation without yet having done so - two-thirds (67%) intend to book a domestic trip, and nearly half (41%) expect to book an international vacation.

Among Australian respondents, more than a fifth (21%) plan to book an international vacation (compared to 6% who already have) despite the current restrictions on outbound international travel there. In the UK, thirty-nine percent (39%) of respondents plan to book an international trip (compared to 13% who already have) despite the relatively small number of international destinations currently on the UK government’s ‘green list’ for travel.

For many travelers, it seems their vacation planning hinges less on if they want to travel this year, and more on when they will be allowed to do so.

In the near term, current indicators suggest a majority of travelers are opting for the relative security of a domestic vacation in view of the strict restrictions that remain in place on international travel in most markets.

Looking at hotel searches that took place on Tripadvisor in the first week of May for check-in dates during the summer months, Tripadvisor can see that travelers were overwhelmingly searching for domestic vacations - seventy-five (75%) of June vacation searches were for domestic destinations, as well as sixty-seven (67%) of searches for July trips and sixty-two percent (62%) of those looking to get away in August.

However, for trips planned later in the year, the same search data (from the first week of May) shows international hotel searches actually making up the majority of trips planned from November 2021 onwards.

Broken down by region though, it becomes clear that confidence in the return of international travel - to the extent that consumers are actively trip planning - varies depending on where you are in the world.

For hotel check-ins planned in September, more than half (54%) of the searches by travelers in Europe and the Middle East are for international stays, compared to a third (33%) of searches by U.S. travelers and just a quarter (26%) of searches by travelers in the Asia-Pacific region.

For December stays, international trips make up three-quarters (76%) of all searches by travelers in Europe and the Middle East, compared to two-thirds (65%) of U.S traveler searches and less than half (40%) of searches in the Asia-Pacific region.

Return of the City Break

If these overall trends in hotel search volumes tell one half of the story of how the travel recovery is likely to unfold in 2021, the type of trips that travelers are planning tells the other.

Here, Tripadvisor can observe some fascinating differences in travel behaviors between vaccinated and unvaccinated travelers.

In Tripadvisor’s research report entitled 2020: A Year in Travel: Charting the Travel Industry’s Path to Recovery, released in November 2020, Tripadvisor highlighted the trend towards nature destinations among travelers keen to avoid crowded tourist hotspots. But now, with the rollout of the vaccine gaining momentum, the appeal of the city break appears to be returning.

In fact, of those vaccinated respondents who either have booked or are planning to book a vacation in 2021, nearly a third (32%) say they feel more confident about visiting an urban center as a result of receiving at least one dose of the vaccine. Globally, exactly the same percentage (32%) also plan to take a city break on their next trip, compared to just a fifth (20%) of vaccinated respondents taking a nature trip.

In the U.S., the difference between the destinations favored by vaccinated respondents and unvaccinated respondents is even greater. More than a third (35%) of those surveyed in the U.S. who have had the vaccine said their next vacation would be to a city destination, compared to less than a quarter (24%) of unvaccinated respondents. By comparison, just sixteen percent (16%) of vaccinated respondents in the U.S. said they were planning a nature trip next, whereas the appeal of the great outdoors among unvaccinated U.S. respondents remains more resilient - more than a fifth (22%) cited nature as their next destination of choice, and a further twenty percent (20%) plan on taking a road trip.

This is also underscored by the reasons that respondents reported when describing the purpose of their preferred next trip. Among those surveyed in the U.S., only thirty-nine percent (39%) said they intended to “enjoy nature” on their next trip, a lower proportion than reported a desire to “relax and rejuvenate” (55%), “escape their daily routine” (49%) or “make memories with friends/family” (48%). By contrast, more than half (53%) of unvaccinated respondents in the U.S. selected “enjoy nature” as their next trip’s purpose, second only to “relax and rejuvenate” (57%) among the motivating factors for that group.

A similar story can be found in the UK, too. Among vaccinated respondents in the UK, more plan to visit a city next (29%) than plan to visit nature (25%), but the reverse is true for unvaccinated Brits - nearly a third (28%) of those surveyed are taking a nature trip next, compared to a fifth (21%) heading to the city.

Longer, Bigger Trips

The return to cities is not the only way in which travel preferences are shifting. Tripadvisor's sentiment analysis also suggests a trend towards longer trips, as consumers look to make up for lost time.

Vaccinated travelers say they are planning longer trips, on average, than those who have yet to be vaccinated - but among both groups, a notable proportion of those planning to travel in 2021 said they were favoring longer trips this year (in all but one of the six markets surveyed).

Globally, twenty-two percent (22%) of respondents plan to take a longer trip than they would have done pre-pandemic, rising to nearly a third (30%) of vaccinated respondents.

Curiously, while respondents in Singapore are less likely to be planning travel than those in the five other surveyed markets, those Singaporeans who do intend to travel are the most likely to be planning a longer trip (30%). The least likely set of travelers to be taking a longer trip this year are those in Japan - just six percent (6%) of those surveyed plan to do so.

Search data on Tripadvisor also underlines the trend towards longer trips, especially for those planning an international break. Looking at the average length of stay among hotel searches during the first week of May, nearly half (46%) of all international trip searches were for stays lasting six days or more, compared to twelve percent (12%) of all domestic trip searches.

In some markets, this trend is even more pronounced. In the UK, more than half (57%) of all international hotel searches in the first week of May were for trips of six days or more and one in six (16%) were for trips lasting more than ten days.

So, it seems, when travelers finally do get to travel abroad, they plan to go big.

Travel spending patterns also point towards the same trend.

The average booking value (ABV) of all hotel searches in the first week of May on Tripadvisor was significantly higher for travelers researching international vacations than for those researching domestic stays. When broken down by check-in dates (i.e. when the trip is planned to take place) Tripadvisor sees that the ABV reaches a peak for trips planned in November and December.

In other words, for their higher spend trips, travelers are researching accommodation options further in advance than they are for lower spend trips. For destinations and accommodations aiming to capture their share of these higher spend bookings, it means taking action now to grab the attention of those travelers who are already making plans.

Globally, more than a quarter of travelers surveyed (26%) plan to spend more on their next trip compared to what they spent on travel prior to the pandemic, compared to one in ten (9%) who plan to spend less. Vaccinated respondents are especially keen to spend more - over a third (35%) plan to spend more on their next trip compared to a fifth (20%) of those yet to receive the vaccine.

Travelers in the U.S. (40%) and Singapore (31%) are the most likely to say they will spend more, with respondents in Italy (17%) and Japan (20%) the least likely.

There are also differences in the likely travel companions respondents plan to vacation with. Nearly twice the proportion of vaccinated travelers surveyed (13%) plan to travel with extended family members than non-vaccinated travelers (7%).

Of those markets surveyed, travelers in Italy are the most social when it comes to selecting their travel companions - a quarter (25%) plan to travel with either extended family and/or friends when they vacation next.

This indicates that, as vaccination rates rise, so too may the number of consumers traveling as part of a larger group. This is something that advertisers, accommodations and activity providers should bear in mind as they plan marketing strategies for the months ahead.

Key takeaways

In analyzing traveler planning and search behaviors on Tripadvisor across all major markets globally, and combining that with consumer sentiment analysis drawn from a survey of over 2,400 respondents across six markets, Tripadvisor's research has revealed five key takeaways for tourism and hospitality businesses:

There are encouraging signs of growth in demand for accommodations in the U.S. and major European markets, but a muted recovery picture emerges across the Asia-Pacific region
The vaccine is having a significant impact on the demand for leisure travel – countries where the pace of the vaccination rollout is more advanced, like the U.S. and UK, are experiencing the strongest growth in traveler searches - and that is translating to dining and experiences demand too
Domestic tourism is dominating travel planning searches for the peak season ahead, but for trips further out travelers are already actively planning international travel
The city break is back! City destinations are the number one trip of choice for those who have been vaccinated - but nature still appeals for those waiting on their first dose
On average, vaccinated travelers plan to spend more and vacation longer than other travelers – offering hope for greater spending in the tourism sector once vaccinations everywhere become widespread